The Weather Network – Potent mid-week storm packs an icy, wintry punch in southern Ontario

Monday, March 21st 2022, 7:43 am – Plan ahead: Wednesday’s Texas low is set to bring an extended period of freezing rain and blustery winds. Power outages a high potential in southern Ontario.

Just as spring officially arrives, forecasters are keeping a close eye on a potent stateside system that threatens the risk for ice and wintry precipitation mid-week. Strong winds ahead of the system is what will help temperatures remain below the freezing mark, with the risk for some significant ice accretion, which could slick up roads and result in power outages as well. Elevation and location will play a major role in the precipitation types. More on the impacts of this dangerous mid-week storm, below.


Visit our Complete Guide to Spring 2022 for an in-depth look at the Spring Forecast, tips to plan for it and much more!


Soak up the pleasant early week weather, which will bring mostly fair and mild conditions through Tuesday. Daytime highs will reach the double digits on Monday, dropping closer to more seasonal values ​​by Tuesday.

EYES SHIFT TO POTENT MID-WEEK SYSTEM THAT WILL PACK A WINTRY PUNCH

A Texas low will bring a messy mix of disruptive weather to southern Ontario by Wednesday, starting with rain and then the risk for ice accretion and wintry precipitation.

This system will be tapping into rich Gulf moisture, which is also setting the stage for significant early-season severe storms for the Gulf Coast states.

“But closer to home that moisture will be clashing with cold air tucked in place over eastern Canada, helping spring to live up to its reputation for unruly weather,” says Michael Carter, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.

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A raw easterly wind will develop ahead of the system, with tastes up to 80 km/h helping to lock temperatures near the freezing mark as the moisture with the storm spreads into the region.

Areas that hold on to temperatures below zero will see a risk for significant ice accretion, which could lead to slick roads and the risk for power outages — especially when coupled with gusty winds.

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“Elevation will play a major role in precipitation type,” Carter says. “With the Niagara Escarpment and other elevated areas most likely to see a risk for ice. Lower elevation areas near the shore of Lake Ontario will see mostly cold rain, coupled with a cutting easterly wind and temperatures only barely in positive territory.”

For areas further north, into cottage country and the Ottawa Valley, there will be a mix of wintry precipitation types, including snow and ice pellets, changing to freezing rain and rain as the moisture surges north.

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This system is also brewing trouble in the southern United States and has all the conditions that could result in profound tornadic development. The US Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a moderate convective outlook for Tuesday, which is the second highest risk on the scale. An outlook of this severity has not been issued three days out since April 2020.

“A substantial severe weather event – ​​including potential for significant tornadoes – remains evident over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region [on] Tuesday,” the SPC stated in their forecast discussion.

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LOOK AHEAD: TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY REBOUND BEFORE COLDER WEEKEND WEATHER

A few rain showers could linger into Thursday, as temperatures soar back into the double digits across much of southern Ontario.

By Friday, mostly cloudy conditions will prevail, with a shot of colder weather expected to arrive during the weekend.

Be sure to check back for the latest updates on the changing conditions across Ontario.

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