Gold price down on rising bond yields, firm greenback; jobs data a non-event

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(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are lower in early US trading Friday, pressured by rising US Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar index on this day. The metals showed no reaction to an as-expected US jobs report. June gold futures were last down $17.80 at $1,936.10 and May Comex silver was last down $0.408 at $24.725 an ounce.

The monthly US employment situation report for March showed the key non-farm payrolls number come in close to market expectations, at up 431,000, compared to forecasts for a rise of around 490,000, and the 678,000 gain seen in the February jobs report. The US employment rate was 3.6%, which was also close to expectations. Markets showed very little to no reaction to the report.

Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The US stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The US stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends.

Here’s the latest news/analysis on the Russia-Ukraine war front from Broker SP Angel in a morning email dispatch: “The Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to end until Russians are expelled from Ukraine or to a defensible position. Russia is highly unlikely to voluntarily exit the Ukraine but may be forced into retreat if reports of significant non-compliance by troops are true. Increasing reports of Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine are encouraging Ukraine forces in their drive to expel foreign forces. A US report also suggests the Russian convoy into Kyiv may no longer exist. Further reports on Russian conscripts and students being sent into battle with poor equipment support news on the poor state of the Russian army. We suspect the Ukraine military will extract a high price while they have Russian forces on the run, partly to ensure the Russian army does not want to come back in a hurry. The West is likely to continue to fund the humiliation of Russia’s once proud military m machine. We expect the war to continue at least for another few months as Ukraine forces work to expel the invaders.”

In other news, Euro zone inflation accelerated to a record 7.5% in March, year-on-year, from a revised 5.9% in February, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war driving up energy costs. These numbers call into question the European Central Bank’s inflation projection of just 5.1% for the year. Money markets are now pricing in more aggressive tightening of monetary policy from the European Central Bank this year.

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $100.00 a barrel. The Biden administration is releasing up to 1 million barrels a day in the coming months from its strategic petroleum reserve, for a total of 180 million barrels. The Wall Street Journal reports that commodity prices, overall, in the first quarter rose at the fastest pace in over 30 years, led by rising energy costs.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index is slightly higher early today. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury note is currently yielding 2.404%.

Other US economic data due for release Friday includes the US manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, the global manufacturing PMI and domestic auto industry sales.

Technically, the June gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above major resistance at $2,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,850.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,955.00 and then at $1,975.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $1,920.10 and then at $1,900.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

May silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $26.16 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $24,045. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $25.285 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $24.625 and then at $24.55. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/or damages arising from the use of this publication.


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